After Jon Ossof’s loss to Karen Handel in the Georgia 6th district house race there have been people seemingly confused about how Jon Ossof lost the race when all of the polling up to election day showed him winning.  Were the polls all wrong?  Are polls ever right?

To figure out if the polls were wrong we are going to take a look at the all of the polls in the month of June leading up to election day on June 21st.  There were 9 polls that we could find.

 Date  Poll Link Handel Ossoff
6/1/17 WSB-TV 48% 49%
6/8/17 WSB-TV 47% 50%
6/9/17 Atlanta Journal-Constitution 44% 51%
6/13/17 WXIA TV 47% 47%
6/14/17 Trafalgar Group 47% 50%
6/16/17 Fox 5Atlanta/Opinion Group 49% 50%
6/17/17 WSB-TV 48% 50%
6/19/17 WSB-TV 49% 49%
6/19/17 Trafalgar Group 51% 49%

Looking at the results of the polls coming up to the election other than an outlier poll from Atlanta Journal-Constitution that showed Ossoff leading 51-44 the results pretty clearly show Karen Handel gaining through the entire month of June.  And in the case of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution they even stated, “It’s one of a several recent polls that show Ossoff with an advantage in the contest, although most other surveys show a tighter race.”. So they were aware that their poll looked different from the rest.

How close was the final poll?  The Trafalgar Group’s poll on June 19th showed Handel ahead at 51% compared to Ossoff at 49%.  The final numbers were Karen Handel 51.9% and Jon Ossoff at 48.1%.  So pretty much right on the numbers especially considering that Ossoff had been trending down coming into election day.